Big East action pits Mountaineers at Friars

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/20/2007 - Providence, RI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In need of a quality win, the Providence Friars host the 22nd-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers in a key Big East showdown from the Dunkin' Donuts Center tonight.

The Friars have had a solid campaign thus far, but they still have a lot of work ahead of them to earn an invite to the NCAA Tournament. Providence, which hasn't defeated a ranked opponent since beating Marquette (74-59) in its Big East opener, enters the contest fresh off a 71-66 victory over St. John's on Saturday. The win put an end to a brief two-game slide and improved the team to 16-9 overall and an even 6-6 in league play. It was also the Friars' 15th home win in 17 games at the Dunkin' Donuts Center this season.

As for WVU, barring a major collapse, it seems pretty certain it will make an appearance in the NCAA Tournament behind a 20-6 record. On Saturday, the Mountaineers defeated Seton Hall, 81-71, to improved to 8-5 in league play. WVU, which has now posted three straight 20-win seasons for the first time since 1985-87, takes to the road, where it has gone just 3-4 thus far.

In terms of the all-time series, Providence owns an 10-9 edge over WVU, although the Mountaineers have won the last four meetings.

The Mountaineers possess one of the best turnover margins in the Big East, as they are forcing their opponents into 17.2 turnovers per game, while committing just 11.4 tpg themselves. Another area WVU has excelled in has been defense, as it is allowing just 59.5 ppg. Offensively, Frank Young leads the way with 14.2 ppg and he is shooting 40.6 percent from three-point range. Joe Alexander has provided a nice complement to him and he is turning in 12.2 ppg and a team-high 4.6 rpg. Darris Nichols adds 10.2 pg and 4.3 apg, while Da'Sean Butler chips in with 10.1 ppg off the bench. In the team's last game, Young tallied 18 points and collected five caroms in leading WVU to a 10-point win over Seton Hall. Nichols posted 17 points and five assists for the Mountaineers, who shot 57.4 percent from the field, including a 9-of-23 effort from long range.

The Friars have a definite advantage on the boards in this game, and they are outrebounding their opponents to by a solid 7.6 rpg on the season. The team has also fared well at the offensive end of the court, where it is averaging a hardy 77.1 ppg on an efficient 49.3 percent shooting from the floor. Herbert Hill currently leads the team in scoring with 17.0 ppg and he is also ripping down 8.3 rpg. Sharaud Curry is second on the roster in scoring (16.9 ppg) as well as assists (4.9 apg), while Weyinmi Efejuku adds 13.9 ppg and 4.4 rpg. Geoff McDermott is another player worth mentioning, as he leads the team in rebounding (9.4 rpg), assists (5.5 apg) and steals (51) to go along with his 10.9 ppg average. In the squad's previous outing, Efejuku poured in 22 points and recorded three steals, as the Friars earned a five-point win over St. John's. Curry netted 18 points, while Hill notched a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds. Providence converted 18-of-20 free-throw attempts in the game and dominated the boards 39-24.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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