107th U.S. Open Championship Preview

Golf Betting Lines

06/11/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In a practice round at Oakmont Country Club two months ago, Tiger Woods debated hitting driver into the wind at the 288-yard eighth hole.

But because the world's best golfer has a self-imposed rule never to hit driver at any par three, he pulled a three-wood instead and knocked his tee ball to 25 feet.

Indeed, if you know one thing about this year's U.S. Open site you should know that its members take pride in their course's ability to chew them up and spit them out, to force them to make decisions like the one Woods was forced to make in April.

"Where 'unplayable' is a compliment," one magazine's cover described Oakmont.

Sounds like the perfect place for a U.S. Open.

Trying to picture Oakmont, think Winged Foot with a few extra rows of teeth, like some great white shark waiting to take a bite out of the world's best golfers.

If Winged Foot was frustrating last year, Oakmont is fixing to be damn near impossible this year. Its fairways will be just as narrow, but what Winged Foot lacked in obstacles, Oakmont has in spades.

Even if its landscape reminds us a little of Telly Savales.

Nearly 4,000 trees have been removed since Ernie Els won the last U.S. Open at Oakmont in 1994, most in clandestine late-night landscaping orgies to keep naysayers at bay and avoid any interruption in play.

Nearly every tree in play when Els won is gone.

The course is bald and open, but there are the nearly 200 bunkers to keep players honest, including the famous "Church Pews" bunker down the left side of No. 3, and the rough will be as penal as it was at Winged Foot last year.

The plan is to grow a 12-foot band of the first cut of rough to three inches, then cut the deepest rough left and right of the landing areas to six inches, the same length as Winged Foot.

It's the second year of the USGA's "penalty fits the crime" plan to make recovery shots harder the further off-line a tee shot is.

In the third round last year, Colin Montgomerie made a double-bogey at Winged Foot's par-three third after he found the deep rough in front of a greenside bunker, duffed a flop shot into that bunker, then two-putted for a five.

"Bloody hell!" the Scotsman shouted.

Expect more of that at Oakmont.

The course has been lengthened 284 yards since Els won in 1994 -- no surprise there; lengthening courses has become the norm over the past 10 years -- so it will play 7,230 yards, about 34 yards shorter than Winged Foot last year.

Scores could be astronomical.

After Phil Mickelson's collapse at the 72nd hole at Winged Foot, Geoff Ogilvy won with a score of five-over 285. It was the highest winning number at a U.S. Open in 32 years -- since Hale Irwin's seven-over 287 prevailed at the so- called "Massacre at Winged Foot" in 1974.

Ogilvy played a practice round at Oakmont with Adam Scott and shot in the mid-80s, he said. Ogilvy also claimed his fellow Australian beat him by double-digits.

That news -- as well as Scott's challenge last weekend in Memphis -- makes Scott a clear choice to join a list of the favorites this week. The usual suspects will be there, too.

Woods hasn't won a U.S. Open since Bethpage Black in 2002, two years after he won his first at Pebble Beach. He also finished runner-up to Michael Campbell in 2005 and placed third in 1999, both at Pinehurst No. 2.

His length means lesser clubs into the greens, and his strength will help him out of the rough. Consider last year's missed cut a fluke; Woods admitted he wasn't ready to play the Open so soon after his father's death.

Tiger will be there on the weekend.

Mickelson was on a roll when he arrived at Winged Foot last year, having won two consecutive majors. He practiced at the course up to a year in advance.

That kind of preparation may have cost him this year, though, as Mickelson withdrew from the Memorial two weeks ago and skipped a scheduled start in Memphis with a wrist injury he said he may have suffered chipping from the rough at Oakmont during a practice round.

If you're looking for favorite 1b, Mickelson is often your guy. But I don't see him winning this year, even if the "redemption" storyline -- which you will see ad nauseam on TV this weekend, we promise you -- gets him into contention.

The remainder of golf's former "Big Five" all make interesting choices, too, especially two-time U.S. Open winners Els and Retief Goosen.

Els won his first Open at Oakmont in '94, then won at Congressional three years later. But is he ready to win again on such a big stage? I'm not so sure. Plus, Oakmont is a different course this time around.

Goosen won at Southern Hills in 2001 and at Shinnecock in 2004. Although he's recently tumbled out of the top 10, he has shown signs of returning to the form that once made him a top-five player. Plus, he's got the U.S. Open game.

Vijay Singh has never won a U.S. Open, but he has two victories already this year and appears to have broken free of the slump that claimed the last half of his '05 season and the first half of '06. With his all-around game, the Fijian can never be counted out.

Looking elsewhere, there are grinders and international stars who can be considered threats.

Keep an eye on Scott, for sure, and Masters champion Zach Johnson, who won again at the AT&T Classic four weeks ago. Sergio Garcia is still the "Best Player Never to Have Won a Major," although if Scott keeps winning he might soon snatch that dubious crown.

Then there's the trio of players everyone forgets could have each won at Winged Foot last year.

Jim Furyk, Padraig Harrington and Montgomerie all joined Mickelson on a list of players who collapsed at Winged Foot's hilly 18th green on Sunday. Harrington recently won the Irish Open -- winning your national championship, he said, is second only to winning majors -- and Montgomerie's shotmaking skills are too good for him to be counted out.

But I'm going with Furyk to win his second U.S. Open.

Now ranked No. 3 behind Woods and Mickelson, Furyk won at Olympia Fields in 2003 with a control game that will suit Oakmont just fine. It's a long course, but more important than that, it's a course where control is of the utmost importance.

If he hadn't backed off one too many times from a relatively easy par putt at the 72nd hole last year -- he eventually missed it -- Furyk could have forced a Monday playoff with Ogilvy at Winged Foot.

"I'm disappointed," he said afterward. "I played my heart out and it didn't work."

I see it ending differently for Furyk this year.

Here's how some others see it:

JIM GILLIS, MANAGING EDITOR: Vijay Singh

Vijay Singh might not be the top choice of some so-called experts, but maybe it's finally his time. He's never won a U.S. Open and only once has he finished in the top-five (T-3 at Pinehurst in 1999), but the three-time major champion does have seven top-10 finishes in his 13 appearances. That always makes Singh a contender. He tied for sixth in each of the last two Opens and this year has a pair of PGA Tour victories to his credit. It's been three years since his last major triumph. He's due for another.

PHIL SOKOL, DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS: Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els

Driving is the key at Oakmont, where the rough is the thickest the pros will face in years. Furyk's ranked second in driving accuracy and can certainly make plenty of birdies. As for Tiger: No reasons needed. Els won here in 1994 and his game has showed signs of improvement. As for darkhorses, I look for good putters who will do well on the 13-plus greens. Players like Justin Rose, Aaron Baddeley and, this might sound crazy, Fred Funk. He is one of the straightest-hitting guys on tour and a decent putter.

KEVIN CURRIE, GOLF EDITOR: Ernie Els

I think Oakmont is going to weed out those who haven't won a major before. Therefore, look for someone who has not only won a major, but this championship. That means, look out for guys like Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Retief Goosen and Ernie Els. The choice here is Els. He struggled earlier in the year with an equipment change, but he is rounding into form. Plus, he won the last time Oakmont hosted the Open. I was leaning towards Goosen, but since sharing second at the Masters, his best finish was a tie for 15th at the Asian Open.

GREG WILEY, STAFF WRITER: Tiger Woods

When Tiger Woods is in the field I have to go with him. I know it's the easy pick, but it's also the smart pick. We all know that the USGA likes to test all aspects of a golfer's game and Tiger is the most well-rounded golfer out there. This year Oakmont is going to play at over 7,200 yards and the toughness of the greens are already being talked about by the players. Woods is in the top-10 in greens in regulation and putting average, and ranks 22nd in driving distance. His one downside is driving accuracy, which ranks 165th on the tour (at just over 55 percent). However, his superior strength to everyone else on the tour gives him a huge advantage when working from the thick rough. That is one of the reasons why I'm not big on Phil Mickelson this week. His driving accuracy is also poor at just over 56 percent and his injured wrist will hurt him when working from the rough. Jim Furyk is also a solid pick to win. The second-ranked player in the world lacks distance off the tee, but that won't hurt as much since he ranks second in driving accuracy, 13th in greens in regulation and 77th in putting average. If you're looking for a true darkhorse, go north of the border and look at Mike Weir. He's not going to win, but could have a strong showing. He finished tied for 20th at the Masters and has three top-25s in his last five tournaments. He has also been strong in past U.S. Opens. The left-hander has five top-20 finishes and three top-10s, including a tie for sixth last year, in eight U.S. Open appearances.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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Big 12 Conference betting odds

Work left to do: Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas State

Texas joins Texas A&M and Kansas as locks after getting league win No. 11. Texas Tech greatly helped its own hopes and crippled OK State's with the two-point win Saturday. Is K-State the last reasonable hopeful? Could be an elimination match in Stillwater on Tuesday, at least for the Cowboys.

Work left to do:

Texas Tech [18-11 (7-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 12] A critical two-point win over OK State leaves the Red Raiders with Baylor and at Iowa State left. Get both and the Red Raiders likely are good to go. Get one and there could be some interesting comparisons with a K-State team that could finish two or three games "ahead" of them in the standings but doesn't have any of the quality wins Texas Tech has. Not a lot in nonconference play (against Arkansas in Little Rock being the best win, by far) to lean on.

Oklahoma State [18-9 (5-8), RPI: 50, SOS: 35] Still without a road win, the Cowboys now need to win two on the road just to get to .500 in conference play. It's hard to recall a team (OK, other than Clemson) falling so precipitously from lock status to almost certainly out of the NCAAs at this point. There are wins to be had in the last three, including a very big home game against K-State on Tuesday, but this team is reeling. Can you tell the pressure to win is getting to them with the way the final possession played out at Texas Tech? There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but if the Pokes don't right this very, very soon, that won't be enough.

Kansas State [20-9 (9-5), RPI: 56, SOS: 96] It pays to be in the Big 12 North. The nine league wins are Colorado (twice), Missouri (twice), Iowa State (twice), Baylor, Nebraska and (a good one against) Texas. That helps explain the middling computer profile. The win over USC is nice, but the nonconference leaves a lot to be desired. The game at OK State in Stillwater on Tuesday is huge, as it could KO the Cowboys and leave K-State with a home date against Oklahoma with which to work.